Spatial Patterns and Intensity of Land Abandonment Drive Wildfire Hazard and Likelihood in Mediterranean Agropastoral Areas

In Mediterranean agropastoral areas, land abandonment is a key driver of wildfire risk as fuel load and continuity increase. To gain insights into the potential impacts on in fire-prone fire-spread modeling approach to evaluate variations induced by different spatial patterns percentages was applied. The study carried out 1200 km2 area located north-western Sardinia (Italy) mostly covered herbaceous fuels. We compared nine scenarios, which consisted control conditions (NA) eight scenarios obtained combining four intensity levels (10, 20, 30, 40%) two abandonment. hypothesized variation dead depth within abandoned polygons with respect conditions. For each scenario, hazard likelihood at landscape scale assessed simulating over 17,000 seasons using minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm. Wildfire simulations replicated weather associated largest fires observed were run 40 m resolution, consistent input files. Our results highlighted that growing amounts substantially increased burn probability, high flame length probability size level. Considering given percentage abandonment, generated likelihood, but average values not significantly different. annual burned from about 2400 ha 3100 40% findings this work demonstrate progressive lands can lead severe modifications behavior thus promoting large fast-spreading events. approaches allow us estimate risks posed future wildfires rural communities, ecosystems anthropic context adopt optimize smart prevention planning strategies mitigate these threats.